2026 Minnesota General Election Preview
Predictably, Minnesota once again is in the eye of the storm as the nation heads into critical midterm elections that will take place on November 3. The party in power—in this instance, Republican President Donald Trump and the Republican Congress—historically suffers losses during midterm elections. Although the national sentiment seems to be that Democrats will fare well in the midterms overall, Minnesota presents a unique and unpredictable set of circumstances. Whereas the national debate is focused on the economy, the war in Iran and affordability, Minnesota has become the object of President Trump's attention due to fraud allegations in Minnesota government programs and the accusations that DFL Governor Tim Walz and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan were complicit because they were slow to address the problem.
President Trump has taken these allegations and incorporated them into his general election messaging. Walz, who ran for Vice President in 2024, has engaged in the war of words almost weekly, with each the President and Governor trading barbs over who is most responsible for all the fraud and corruption.
Republicans have made the fraud issue their top election messaging and issue in every level of the election including the Governor's race, the U.S. Senate race, as well as all 201 legislative races. Election night will be very telling on whether the fraud issue carries the Republicans to victory in key races. Democrats are banking heavily on affordability, gas prices, and the war with Iran carrying the day.
Finally, over the course of the past four years, Minnesota has seen a DFL trifecta elected to office (2023-2024) and, subsequently, a divided government (2025-2026) where the House is currently evenly divided at 67-67 and the Senate DFL holds a one-seat majority. Only a handful of races—and tens of millions of dollars—will decide who will control the legislative chambers come January 2027.
The following is an overview of key races to watch on election night. If you want more information and insight regarding these Minnesota races, please reach out to any member of our Government Relations Team.
Minnesota Governor
In the race between Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Speaker Lisa Demuth, Sen. Klobuchar is the overwhelming favorite. Sen. Klobuchar is perhaps the most popular statewide officeholder in Minnesota running against the lesser known (but not unpopular) Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Sen. Klobuchar has a massive fundraising edge—which has been somewhat mitigated by large independent expenditures supporting Speaker Demuth. Sen. Klobuchar is a former prosecutor with a no-nonsense reputation who has leaned hard into confronting fraud, waste, and abuse—though the GOP has labored mightily to tie her to Minnesota's ongoing fraud scandal. And finally, Sen. Klobuchar is running at a time when a historically unpopular Republican President sits in the White House while gas and diesel prices are through the roof and inflation has spiked.
Bottom line: even with the GOPs attempts to counter Sen. Klobuchar's strengths, the environment favors the Democrat. Polling in the race tells the tale: of the half-dozen polls over the last few months, only one has had the race close. Every other poll has had Speaker Demuth's support topping out in the 39%-41% range, with the latest polls from early October putting the spread at 48-39 and 50-41 in favor of Sen. Klobuchar. And that's after a solid month of advertising on the part of the GOP attempting to dent Sen. Klobuchar's support.
Barring a black swan event, it's hard to see how this race doesn't go the DFL's way. What does remain an open question is whether Sen. Klobuchar will have coattails. If Sen. Klobuchar wins the election by 9 to 11 points or more, she could pull a number of other DFL candidates along with her. If the GOP can find a way to make the race close, their chance of winning other statewide races and/or the legislature increases substantially.
U.S. Senate
The U.S. Senate race to replace retiring incumbent Senator Tina Smith (D) pits current Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (D) against NFL sidelines reporter Michele Tafoya (R). This is a race that has been much closer in polls than the national environment suggests it should be. When U.S. Senators in deep red states such as Kansas and Nebraska are in trouble, it stands to reason that a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in purple to blue Minnesota would have no chance. However, poll after poll shows the race within the margin of error, making it a toss-up with Flanagan slightly favored to win as she has commanded a small lead in most of the polls. Thus far, Tafoya has kept the race close largely on her own with very little national Republican money coming in. While national Senate Republicans have a record fundraising haul, it is being spent to shore up/save candidates in seats they currently hold. If Tafoya loses but is within a couple of percentage points election night, the post-mortem will likely include a lot of finger pointing on why more money wasn’t spent to help her secure a win.
Attorney General
Two-term incumbent Keith Ellison (D) has a strong challenger in Ron Schutz (R), a veteran and formerly a top trial attorney, managing partner and chairman at Robins Kaplan. In 2022, Ellison barely eked out a victory, defeating his opponent 50.4%-49.5%. In 2018, he fared the worst of the statewide candidates, winning 49%-45% against a weak GOP candidate in what was a bad year for Republicans. This should be the year for the GOP to have a chance to win a statewide race for the first time since Tim Pawlenty in 2006 and the first time to have a chance to win the AG office since 1971, but the terrible national environment for Republicans is trickling down to this race. While Schutz has been within a point or two and has even led a poll, the atmosphere for Republicans continues to degrade and it is hard to believe that it won't negatively affect all Republicans across the board. However, this race warrants close attention, as Ellison is an unpopular incumbent who is being attacked by his opponent and outside groups for not doing enough to prevent and prosecute fraud in Minnesota, which seems to be resonating with voters.
Minnesota Senate
The Minnesota Senate is currently split 34-33, with Democrats holding the narrow majority. Republicans had high hopes coming into the election season to flip several seats that Trump won in the 2024 election, but Trump's strong disapproval ratings both in Minnesota and nationwide make it an uphill battle. While Trump won three of the seats held by Democrats, he did not win by a big enough margin to insulate the Republicans candidates in those districts from his current unpopularity. Democrats, meanwhile, have opportunities in several Republican-held districts that former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. However, Republicans do have some bright spots; they have raised record funds, which will put them nearly on equal footing with Democrats for campaign spending for the first time in recent history. Some votes taken by DFL senators in swing districts are drawing scrutiny on the campaign trail and the issue of fraud is being closely tied to DFL elected officials. Finally, Republicans have also emphasized the $18 billion spent and millions in taxes raised under the DFL trifecta, potentially blunting criticism over inflation under Trump. As of mid-October, polling suggests the races below remain competitive. With Election Day still weeks away, the national political environment could shift, but Republicans face persistent headwinds that may be difficult to overcome before November 3.
Minnesota Senate races to watch:
SD3: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Andrea Zupancich
- DFL Candidate: Grant Hauschild (Incumbent)
SD3 is a rematch between current Senator Grant Hauschild (DFL) and Babbitt mayor Andrea Zupancich (R). In 2022, Hauschild won by a slim margin of 50.8% to 49.2%. In an area that has slowly been moving from deep blue to soft red, this district is held by two Republicans in the House and President Trump won the district by a half a percentage point over former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris. This seat is one of four that Republicans hope to flip in their efforts to gain a majority in the Senate.
SD4: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Austin Peterson
- DFL Candidate: Rob Kupec (Incumbent)
This is another race Republicans are eyeing as a flip. Incumbent Senator Rob Kupec (DFL) won this seat by 6% over a spectacularly bad GOP candidate in 2022. This year, the GOP is running Austin Peterson, a local business owner who is involved in a number of community endeavors. This is a seat Trump won by 6% and is widely considered the GOP's best chance at a pickup; if they don't succeed, their path to the majority becomes difficult.
SD14: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Bernie Perryman
- DFL Candidate: Aric Putnam (Incumbent)
This St. Cloud and surrounding areas seat pits incumbent Senator Aric Putnam (DFL) against current House Representative Bernie Perryman (R). Trump won this seat by 4% in 2024, but in 2022, Putnam won by 5.5%. Both are strong candidates that are well known in the area. This one is a true toss-up.
SD33: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Karin Housley (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Nat Smith
Incumbent Karin Housley (R) is being challenged by attorney Nat Smith (DFL) in this east/northeast suburban seat that stretches from Stillwater to Forest Lake. Housley is a 4-term incumbent with strong name recognition. She won by a comfortable 5.5% in 2022 in a seat that went for Harris by .5% in 2024. This is a stretch pickup for the Senate DFL, but in a year with a strong anti-Trump sentiment, it is a stretch worth investing in for the DFL.
SD35: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Jim Abeler (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Angela Nelson
This seat brings about one of the DFL's best chances for a pickup this election. Senator Jim Abeler (R) is a 4-term incumbent in an area that is going increasingly blue. His district is held by 2 DFL House members and Harris won the seat by 3% in 2024, while Abeler won his re-election in 2022 by .5%. The candidate running against him, Angela Nelson (DFL), is a school principal in a school outside of the district.
SD37: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Brady Hoag
- DFL Candidate: Kristy Janigo
Longtime incumbent senator Warren Limmer (R) announced his retirement at the end of last session, which leaves SD37 with a match-up between two newcomers, Brady Hoag (R) and Kristy Janigo (DFL). This seat is one that favors Democrats; Harris won this district by almost 8 percentage points in 2024. Limmer won his last re-election in 2022 by almost 10%, but this is a rapidly changing district. This is a seat that could be tough for the Republicans to hold onto, and if they lose this one, it makes it that much harder for them to make it to the majority.
SD41: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Tom Dippel
- DFL Candidate: Judy Seeberger (Incumbent)
This is another seat Republicans feel bullish about coming into the election. It is a rematch between incumbent senator Judy Seeberger (DFL) and Tom Dippel, who went on to win a House seat in the district in 2024 after losing to Seeberger by just .6% in 2022. While Harris won this district by 1.5% in 2024, Republicans also won both House sides of the district that same year. This is one of the races that could very well decide who holds the majority in the Senate.
SD48: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Julia Coleman (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Dan Kessler
This is yet another rematch, with incumbent senator Julia Coleman (R) being challenged again by Dan Kessler (DFL). Coleman won 53.3%-45.6% in 2022, while in 2024, Harris won the district by .2% and the House seats were split with one very strong R seat and one narrowly won DFL seat. This is another stretch seat for the DFL, but with so few seats in play and so much money to go around, it makes sense for them to engage in this district.
SD58: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Bill Lieske (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Mark Levgold
This is a district that has somewhat surprisingly ended up on the watch list. Incumbent senator Bill Lieske (R) won 52.8%-47.1% in 2022 and Trump won this district by 6.5% in 2024. However, he drew a strong opponent in Mark Levgold (DFL), a veteran, farmer and former educator running on a very moderate pro-business platform. If Democrats win this seat, it is likely a very bad night for Republicans and Democrats are likely to increase their one-seat majority in the Senate.
Minnesota House of Representatives
The Minnesota House district map favors the DFL for a simple reason: to win the majority, they just need to win districts that supported Harris in the 2024 presidential election. At present, they only hold a single district that President Trump won—14B, a seat in St. Cloud that is currently held by outgoing representative Dan Wolgamott.
Another factor is that the GOP appears to be dedicating the lion's share of campaign spending to state senate campaigns. This isn't to say that the GOP is under-resourced compared to the DFL in state house races, but we aren't seeing the huge levels of outside spending that characterized the 2024 campaign when the GOP was able to fight the DFL to a 67-67 tie.
The DFL path to victory is straightforward: defend suburban seats (all of which voted for Harris) and pick up a few more suburban seats (most of which voted for Harris or were essentially tied). To get to a large majority they need to make some progress outside of the metro area—which could happen. Nationally, Democrats are polling ahead in districts that voted for President Trump by 10+ points. If that dynamic holds true, a lot of districts could suddenly be in play.
The GOP has a tougher path. They need to hold a lot of districts that voted for Harris and then find a way to win in a bunch more districts that also voted for Harris while campaigning against the backdrop of a historically unpopular president. The good news is that in 2024 the GOP came very, very close—as in, within 14 votes close—of winning the majority. On top of that, there are a number of suburban races that were decided by two percentage points or less in 2024. If the GOP can get those to fall their way, they have a shot. Still, given the unpopularity of President Trump, the GOP path is much narrower. They need everything to go right, while the DFL can lose a few close races and still have lots of opportunities to pick up seats elsewhere.
Minnesota House races to watch:
2A: Currently held by the GOP:
- GOP Candidate: Bidal Duran, Jr. (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Reed Olson
This is a rematch between Bidal Duran and Reed Olson from 2024, when Duran won by just under 4 points in a district that President Trump won by 7 points. While not the highest profile race on this list, if it flips, that is a sign of a very bad night for the GOP, and perhaps a sign that there will be some surprising results in races that haven't been closely tracked this cycle.
3B: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Natalie Zeleznikar (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Aaron Schweiger
This is the race to watch. Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar is a strong campaigner who has won her last two elections by incredibly slim margins in a district that leans blue (Harris won it by 4 points). To have a chance to take the majority, the GOP needs to hold this seat.
11A: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Jeff Dotseth (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Chris Swanson
Rep. Jeff Dotseth won by less than 3 points in 2024, which matches President Trump's margin in the district as well. This is another race where if the GOP is unable to hold, it will be the sign of a very rough night for the GOP.
14B: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Sue Ek
- DFL Candidate: Zach Dorholt
With Rep. Wolgamott not running for re-election after an unsuccessful bid to become State Auditor, 14B has become a contest between Sue Ek who ran and was defeated in 2024 and former Rep. Zach Dorholt. This is one of the GOP's best opportunities to flip a seat, and the only state house seat the DFL holds that voted for President Trump in 2024. What happens in this St Cloud seat—along with the Senate race—may be the bellwether for who will win the legislature. That said, the DFL can lose this seat and maintain a path to the majority, while it should be considered a must win for the GOP.
18A: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Erica Schwartz (Incumbent)
- DFL Candidate: Leah Hanson
Speaking of bellwether races: this seat has flipped back and forth for the last several election cycles. The GOP needs to hold on to this seat if they want to have a reasonable chance at taking the House. If the seat flips yet again, the DFL will be in a strong position to take the majority.
32B: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Leslie Larson
- DFL Candidate: Matt Norris (Incumbent)
Rep. Matt Norris won by less than a percentage point in 2024 and the GOP recruited a strong challenger in Blaine city councilmember Leslie Larson. Not to overuse the term "bellwether," but this one probably counts too. Rep. Norris is a strong campaigner, and if he holds this seat, especially if he expands his margin, it is probably indicative as to the direction that these purple-hued suburban districts are going to go on election night. A "must win" for the GOP.
34A: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Danny Nadeau
- DFL Candidate: Jason Heaser
This district represents the challenge facing the GOP this election: Rep. Danny Nadeau won this district relatively easily, but it was also won narrowly by Harris. If Rep. Nadeau is unable to hold onto the district, or if even if his margin shrinks substantially, it will be a bad sign for the GOP's chances, and a sign that the DFL is positioned to win a lot of close suburban races this year.
35B: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Steve Pape
- DFL Candidate: Kari Rehrauer (incumbent)
Another rematch! Rep. Kari Rehrauer defeated Steve Pape by only 280 votes in 2024. Another "must win" for the GOP in a classic suburban purple district. If Rep. Rehrauer is able to win and especially if she is able to expand her margin—the likelihood of the GOP taking the House drops significantly.
36A: Currently held by the GOP
- GOP Candidate: Sebastian Stoss
- DFL Candidate: Jim DeMay
This seat had been held by Rep. Elliot Engen, who won quite easily in 2024. The DFL recruited a very strong candidate in Jim DeMay, who fits the moderate nature of the district—which Harris won by 2 points in 2024. DeMay is also one of the top DFL fundraisers, with Sebastian Stoss struggling to match DeMay's firepower. This is the sort of seat the DFL should be able to win—whether or not they can will likely determine which party controls the House.
41A & 41B: Currently held by the GOP
- 41A GOP Candidate: Wayne Johnson (Incumbent)
- 41A DFL Candidate: Cole Birkeland
- 41B GOP Candidate: William Beck
- 41BDFL Candidate: Jen Fox
These are the suburban districts to watch. These GOP seats have teetered on the edge of flipping for a couple of cycles now, with Rep. Wayne Johnson winning by only a few hundred votes in 2024 and Rep. Tom Dippel (who is running for Senate) winning by just under 500 votes. If these seats flip, it's likely a sign that it's going to be rough sledding purple suburban districts across the map. If they hold—and especially if the GOP candidates increase their margins—then the GOP's chance of taking the majority increases significantly.
48B: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Caleb Steffenhagen
- DFL Candidate: Lucy Rehm (incumbent)
…and yet another rematch! Rep. Lucy Rehm won by just over 200 votes in 2024 after winning the seat by just over 400 votes in 2022. The pattern is likely clear at this point: if the DFL holds this seat with a larger margin, then that likely spells big trouble for the GOP. If the GOP is able to win, their path to the majority will clearly be through the suburbs. That said, Harris won this district by 10 points—it really is a seat the DFL should be able to hold relatively easily.
54A: Currently held by the DFL
- GOP Candidate: Aaron Paul
- DFL Candidate: Brad Tabke (incumbent)
Another rematch and the final must watch race on this list. In 2024 when Rep. Brad Tabke won by just 14 votes, in the race that ultimately placed the chamber at a 67-67 tie. The district leans blue—Harris won it four and a half points—so in a good year for Democrats it should be an easier hold.
The Government Solutions team at Stinson LLP provides a complete range of services to clients who need to interact with government at all levels, including businesses, trade associations, nonprofits and citizens' groups. If you have any questions specific to this subject, please contact Will Blauvelt, Erin Buie or Paul Cassidy.
